15 things that Indian markets expect in 2015

Image: The markets, in 2015, will hopefully not be as confused as this trader. Photograph: Kai Pfaffenbach/Reuters

It is the New Year when the young Bull promises to become an adult. It is the New Year when sentiments are going to be crystallised into reality. It is the year for market regulator U K Sinha to leave his mark on the Dalal Street before wrapping up his five-year stint at the BKC fortress that is the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi). As I sit to try and cobble up a list of 15 things that you can expect in the market, there are things investors would ideally want to happen and things I actually expect to happen. Here’s a cocktail of both:

Indian Financial Code:  Some top minds in the country worked to put together a comprehensive legislation that would help us make a better sense of the world of finance with better safety for the small guy has been gathering dust for over a year now. Let the New Year bring it to life.

Unified regulator: With the Forward Markets Commission coming under its purview, the finance ministry now has administrative powers over most of the financial sector regulators – Sebi, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (Irda) and Pension Funds Regulatory and Development Authority. It is time to bring them all under one super regulator.

Some dilution in Clause 49: This clause in the listing agreement deals with the provisions related to corporate governance. Though this is not going to be a pleasant one for the small investors, some dilution or realignment with the newly amended Companies Act seems inevitable with respect to related party transactions. So watch this space.

New framework for IPOs: The much amended and tweaked initial public offering (IPO) framework is likely to be tweaked again. As primary market refuses to wake up, Sebi seems to be getting desperate to see it revive. But, that adage which applies to investors applies to the regulator too – the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

Sensex at 30,000: Talking of irrationality, thankfully, it was on the right side in 2014. But, will it continue in the New Year? Well, I hope at least 30,000 is not a tall order… that’s only 10% from where we will close 2014. I’m happy to grant you trolling rights if we don’t get there. What the government has done so far doesn’t inspire me to stick my neck out for bigger numbers. Not yet, at least.

E-commerce IPOs: E-commerce has been the darling of big-bracket private funds. But the small guy on the street has been itching to join the party. With some local players becoming big enough, you might finally order for delivery of a hot stock. But don’t expect any great discounts on that.

BSE Listing: This one may not be as exciting, but Asia’s oldest bourse has been waiting for long to bring up its IPO. Note it has been in the works for over two years now. May be the old BSE shareholders will finally get their exit this year.

Regional Exchanges:  Let us hope these relics of the past are finally wound up in the New Year, with proper migration of companies to national bourses and adequate redressal of investor issues.

Clean and Liquid SME exchanges:  These exchanges today are a study in contrast with one hyperactive and other dormant.  A middle path needs to be discovered in the New Year.

Accountable Analysis: The framework governing research analysts has already come into place in December. But from May onwards, these will acquire real teeth as vested interests can no longer take investors for a ride that easily.

Surprises in AGMs:  The full impact of the new corporate governance regime, howsoever diluted, will be seen in its full avatar in the New Year.  Be prepared for some of your favourite stocks getting upset by voting surprises.

Closure to the National Spot Exchange investors: Though it happened in a different asset class, several entities including brokers, investors and advisors who were hit by the Rs 5,600 crore (Rs 56 billion) scam were closely associated with the equity market. A quick closure to this mess next year will be a boost for sentiment and activity.

Pending cases of Big Boys: The pending proceedings against Reliance Industries in the 2007 case and court/ tribunal matters of Sahara and DLF should be brought to an end at least this year. Cases dragging on for years cause overhang on stocks affecting investors.

More Jailbirds: Sebi has begun cracking down on illegal money raising activities across the country. It has also used its new powers to send people to jail on one default. Will there be more? Quite likely. The list of people who have defaulted on penalties due to Sebi is a long one. These people had better be prepared with the penalty amount, or learn counting the bars on a cell, instead.

Real Divestment: This has been on my wish list every New Year. But the government has hardly been able to fulfil it. Sometimes it is the LIC that comes to bail out, and PSU cross holdings at others. Let the new government make it a resolve to bring a bumper disinvestment sale that leaves a smile on everyone’s face –investors, bankers, the company and officials

The human superstar

At first glance, the setting wasn't befitting of the occasion. It was an invitation-only media session with Sachin Tendulkar on the eve of his completing 20 years in international cricket. The Taj Land's End hotel was the perfect venue because it was only a few minutes’ drive from his home in suburban Mumbai. But the room was small, tucked away in a corner of the second floor; dimly lit; and had such a narrow entrance that the television cameramen struggled to get their equipment through.Of course only a few had been invited. Inevitably, though, word got around and inevitably everyone piled in. Could it really have been any other way? So there were nearly as many television cameras as Tendulkar’s Test hundreds; the chairs were taken up quickly so many of the journalists squatted on the floor, almost engulfing Tendulkar in a semi-circle. Coverage of the event was embargoed till November 15, the actual day of Tendulkar’s landmark, but word came soon that a couple of television channels were broadcasting it live. It felt shambolic.

Impact of a US recession on India

Indian companies have major outsourcing deals from the US. India's exports to the US have also grown substantially over the years. The India economy is likely to lose between 1 to 2 percentage points in GDP growth in the next fiscal year. Indian companies with big tickets deals in the US would see their profit margins shrinking.The worries for exporters will grow as rupee strengthens further against the dollar. But experts note that the long-term prospects for India are stable. A weak dollar could bring more foreign money to Indian markets. Oil may get cheaper brining down inflation. A recession could bring down oil prices to $70.

INDIA DILEMMA

Under the new scheme, the Rs. 8200 crore subsidy for the current fiscal will be shared by the upstream oil companies such as Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and the Gas Authority of India (GAIL) as well as the oil marketing companies of Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL), Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) and IOC's subsidiary IBP.The bulk of this burden, about two thirds, will be carried by the oil marketing companies and the balance of about Rs. 2400 crores is the responsibility of ONGC and GAIL.but the main thing is this they or indian govt. can't give subsidy to the electric car REVA which is costing now 4 lac.

I think the subsidy have to transfer from petrol to car atleast for saving the environment.

FIFTY KEY WORDS FOR A M.B.A.

1.ACTIVITY BASE COSTING
2.BALANCE SCORECARD
3.BARRIERS
4.BRAINSTORMING
5.BRANDING
6.BUSINESS CYCLE
7.BUSINESS MODELING
8.BUSINESS PLAN
9.CANIBILIZATION
10.CHAMPIONING
11.CHANGE MANAGEMENT
12.CHERRY PICKING
13.CLUSTERING
14.COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE
15.CONVERGENCE
16.CORE COMPETENCE
17.CORPORATE GOVERNANCE
18.C.S.R.
19.COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
20.CRISIS MANAGEMENT
21.CRITICAL PATH ANALYSIS
22.CROSS SELLING
23.CULTURE
24.C.R.M.
25.DECENTRALIZATION
26.DE LAYERING
27.DIFFERENTIATION
28.DIVERSIFICATION
29.DOUBLE LOOP LEARNING
30.DOWNSIZING
31.E-COMMERCE
32.ECONOMIC OF SCALE
33.ECONOMIC OF SCOPE
34.EMPOWERMENT
35.E.R.P.
36.ENTREPRENEURSHIP
37.EXCELLENCE
38.EXPERIENCE CURVE
39.FAMILY FIRMS
40.FRANCHISE
41.GAME THEORY
42.GLASS CEILING
43.GLOBALIZATION
44.GROWTH SHARE MATRIX
45.HAW THROW EFFECT
46.HIERARCHY OF NEEDS
47.INNOVATION
48.INTRAPRENEURSHIP
49.JUST IN TIME
50.KAIZEN

The key challenge is to look to new horizons.

Strategy allowed us to develop a viable proposition where we could scale up the rural lending model realistically. I don't believe anyone has implemented this model before. The typical approach to rural lending has been through micro-loans, and that has certainly had some degree of success. But a large-scale rural banking model where you are ultimately trying to reach a population of 600 million people has not been done. That is our challenge -- and also our opportunity. Meeting this challenge of lending to India's farmers also involves other complexities. Agriculture here heavily depends on the monsoons or rains. The biggest risk is the failure of the monsoon. Now can you lend to rural India without fixing this risk? What we did was to ask if this was an insurable risk. Could we get such insurance? MODEL OF ICICI

An inspired decision and a subsequent fairytale

Blaming selectors for wrong doings is an age old practice in Indian cricket. More often than not, they deserve the stick. But like wicket-keeping, where you only get noticed if you drop a catch or fumble balls, if the selectors have taken an inspired decision, which helped dramatically transform the fortunes of the team they hardly get credit for it. Virender Sehwag's inclusion was one such decision.

Out in the cold for a while and scoring almost nothing in domestic cricket, Sehwag was picked on reputation and past performance for India's tour of Australia in December 2007. He was almost a living memory, who had been resuscitated from the dead for one final time. While the skipper had a major role in the picking, primary credit must go to Dilip Vengsarkar and company. Once picked, Sehwag, legends like Gavaskar were insistent, had to play. He wasn't part of the Indian team for the first two Test matches at Melbourne and Sydney. India, for the record, lost both games. Once picked at Perth, he gave India the momentum the team needed and helped script the best ever victory on Australian soil. At the WACA, India had amassed 56 in the first hour courtesy Sehwag. The battle was finally on. What followed his all round heroics at Perth was a match saving hundred at Adelaide and now he has come up with the Chennai Chamatkar (miracle), labelled by many like Vengsarkar as the best Test innings ever seen.